Sept.23--FACED with a year of falling rates on main trade lanes, only an inveterate optimist could find a silver lining in 2015's cloudy shipping season.
But such is found in Lloyd's List's Linton Nightingate, who expects third quarter Asia-US container volumes will rise 6.2 per cent over the previous quarter - and 5.6 per cent year on year.
"With service levels on the US west coast finally restored amid the backdrop of a rejuvenated US economy, analysts are anticipating a healthy peak season for the Asia-west coast North America trade," he said, but citing no analysis other than his own.
"In the third quarter, box numbers imported from Asia are expected to rise some 6.2 per cent over the second quarter and by 5.6 per cent compared to the corresponding period last year," he said.
"Unlike previous years, however, there was much less happening in terms of capacity changes at the beginning of the peak season. Overall capacity on the trade grew by just 2.3 per cent in the second quarter against that deployed at the end of March, representing only a 0.6 per cent increase on last year.
Despite a jump in Asian imports to America, he said vessel load factors will fall to 89 per cent during the third quarter as volumes continue to return to the US west coast, where operations are now approaching normal.
Unless capacity is withdrawn to offset the large amount of space added since the turn of the year, utilisation levels will drop even further during the fourth quarter to around 85 per cent, he said.
This number is likely to continue to fall until the Panama Canal's third locks open next year, when volumes are to rise considerably as shippers look to make the most of the cost savings offered by all-water services via the US east coast.
Mr Linton cited recent capacity reduction measures and said: "With no major capacity additions in the second quarter and volumes on the up, utilisation during the third quarter will tighten to 89 per cent."
He expects vessel load factors will drop to 84 per cent in the final quarter, "but levels will remain higher than those witnessed during the corresponding period last year".
Turning to the US east coast, he said capacity had increased 16 per cent in the second quarter over the previous three months, the result of the aftermath of west coast labour trouble.
"The impending enlargement of the Panama Canal continued to have a significant bearing on liner deployment to the Atlantic seaboard," he said.
(Source:shippingazette)